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Michael Ubaldi, September 17, 2003.
Getting serious with Pyongyang, on any number of issues, seems to be a shared popular desire: The Japanese families of people abducted to North Korea on Wednesday marked the first anniversary of the historic visit by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to Pyongyang by demanding that the Japanese government take a tougher stance to settle the abduction issue.
UPDATE: And North Korea has made it more than obvious that it's erratic and dishonest at the negotiating table with any party - for a dictatorship, at that. Don't expect any gentlemen's frameworks to be agreed upon in the near future; that goes for Seoul, Tokyo and Washington. Michael Ubaldi, September 16, 2003.
Steven caught a quiet press report about a possible Chinese military buildup on the North Korean border. And he did write about a possible Chinese occupation of North Korea. I e-mailed him a question a few days ago about China's potential for mischief while America's alliance is occupied with terrorists and host states, and must have missed it. Do the Chinese intend to declare eminent domain on Kim Jong Il and his 120,000 square kilometer prison? I'm certain they'd try if they were confident they could get away with it. Most of the rest of the world, more than happy to qualify China as "not as bad" as North Korea, would accept Chinese occupation, U.N. mandate or not. Depending on the strategic stakes involved, the Bush administration - surprisingly deferential to the Chinese over the past three years - might go along with the idea as well. But that's been my worry: In a global political climate popularizing security from terrorists and tyrant states (the latter a classification from which China is inexplicably excused), China's oligarchy would step in, smile for cameras about "doing their part," and absorb a neighbor or two. As Michael Ledeen pointed out shortly after September 11th, economic success risks being galvanized into nationalistic, authoritarian ambitions, and much of our "engagement" amounts to feeding a hungry lion in an attempt to tame it: Mr. Bush has to contend with the present state of affairs, and must evaluate the risks and challenges of contemporary China. Classical fascism was the product of war, and its leaders praised military virtues and embarked upon military expansion. Chinese leaders often proclaim a peaceful intent, yet they are clearly preparing for war, and have been for many years. Optimists insist that China is not expansionist, but optimists pooh-poohed Hitler's imperialist speeches too, and there is a lot of Chinese rhetoric that stresses Beijing's historic role, as if there were an historic entitlement to superpower status.
Having just left political fashion of the Cold War and those years' unfortunate need for some moral equivalence, no elected leader over the past twelve years has bluntly warned the world's dictatorships that they lack the authority and reputation to participate freely in maintaining the security of the world (e.g., they're the sole reason for instability). Exceptions are made for strategic purposes, like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, but for how long? It's very likely that the most capable despots will seek conquest - internal or external - under the auspices of global justice (for real, not like the lame accusations against Bush by the nihilist left and isolationist right). However polite and sophisticated, China is a dictatorship and until Beijing's regime finally falls, its purported good intentions should be viewed as suspicious at best. "World responsibility" aside, the country's treatment of its uncooperative citizens and conquered territories speaks volumes. Receiving the blessing of their democratic military and economic superior - the United States - for removing Kim Jong Il and his nuke-tipped histrionics would be a great prize, and would enable the Chinese to move south at their leisure. And remember: in an invasion, they wouldn't bind themselves to the same "economically disadvantageous" humanitarian concerns as South Korea or the United States. So as Steven kids, "so how is your realpolitik?" Interesting as this development is - assuming we can describe it as that - if a Chinese expansion goes unchallenged, it doesn't bode well for the world ten or twenty years down the road. UPDATE: John Derbyshire happened to write about China today, and the topic is Tibet's plight. Free China, he says, and you free Tibet. Indeed. A wealth of culture and ingenuity in both places, under the thumb of tyrants - that's a crime. Michael Ubaldi, September 12, 2003.
Japan's already positive economic outlook has brightened again: Improved business spending and better prospects for exporters prompted the Japanese government to raise its official reading on the economy for the second straight month on Friday, though officials stopped short of saying a full recovery was under way.
Japan is on the verge of a great opportunity. Here's to hoping they make the best of it. Michael Ubaldi, September 11, 2003.
Koorosh Afshar sent me word of his latest essay in Iran va Jahan: You might still remember that our youth, the new generation of the Iranians, we, were the only people among the Middle Eastern countries, while opposing the ruling mullahs, poured into the streets and held candle light vigils to show our solidarity with the Americans, quite contrary to the vile policies of our government. At the time this seemed quite sufficient to disclose to others as to how we felt about the 9/11 tragedy.
Michael Ubaldi, September 7, 2003.
We've taken Axis nations to task before: America will tomorrow demand that the United Nations takes urgent action to prevent Iran acquiring the atom bomb as fears mount that Teheran is on course to develop a nuclear weapons capability within two years.
Mr. al-Baradei writes in the report's conclusion that "there remain a number of important outstanding issues, particularly with regard to Iran's enrichment programme, that require urgent resolution".
UPDATE: From Dan Darling, a pretty darned good reason for America to turn its attention to Tehran. Key word? Al Qaeda. Michael Ubaldi, September 3, 2003.
North Korea's performance as a dictatorial pariah is something of a tautology. What more can be written about than the DPRK's congenital unreliability in civilized conduct, brutality towards the North Korean population and obsession with catastrophic weapons? It's like putting together a script for The Three Stooges: maybe a little something unexpected but for the most part, variations on a theme. James Robbins busts the average: This instrumentalist view of international agreements may not come as a surprise to students of Soviet history, but if there are any of them in the State Department, they were probably reading Lenin for the wrong reasons.
Michael Ubaldi, September 1, 2003.
A so-called corporate hegemon is only as good as its ubiquity: Three North Asian countries are closer to signing a deal to co-develop an open source operating system to replace Windows, according to the Japan news daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun.
Michael Ubaldi, September 1, 2003.
Good news for us is good news for the world's biggest little island: The Tokyo stock market's key Nikkei average surged more than three percent on Monday to its highest since July 2002 as signs of global economic recovery sparked buying of a wide range of issues, including top brokerage Nomura Holdings Inc 8604.T.
Michael Ubaldi, August 28, 2003.
Yes, I meant "pugilists" when I said it. Glenn Reynolds caught Christopher Hitchens' latest badge of anger. If God has a blasphemy seismograph up above, it just scribbled a "big one." Hitchens' attack on the Commandments is probably one of the least-informed screeds from an otherwise professional journalist most people will ever read in a lifetime. Paragraph ten, for instance - uh, Temptation in the Garden, Christopher? Even if someone disbelieves in the veracity of the Bible, the least they could do is crack one and figure out what the book actually says. After that, a single one-hour Bible study at a local church could sort out most of the symbolism on which to debate. A layman could tear this column to shreds line by line (if they wanted to join in earnest these silly games cynics like to play). As it is, Hitchens has essentially basted himself for the theologians' grill. I'd expect a response or two from the Weekly Standard and National Review. One might as well fly in Stephen Hawking's face and taunt him with "Is it mind over matter or matter over mind?" (which has been done before, and you'll never, ever, ever figure out by whom - no hints, OX!) Michael Ubaldi, August 28, 2003.
The detention of Fumiaki Yamada has come to a fortunate end: Fumiaki Yamada, head of a Japanese group called The Society To Help Returnees To North Korea was deported from Shanghai soon after his release and arrived at Narita airport Thursday evening.
The three South Koreans were also released and went to Seoul on Thursday, but the whereabouts of the North Koreans remained unknown, members of Yamada's NGO said.
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