Asserted by the National Intelligence Council: Iran a) continues to process uranium to the point of the element's sustaining a fission reaction, b) was essaying to build an atomic bomb before it stopped testing in autumn of 2003, c) has not necessarily abstained from research of a weapon, d) only backed off because of international suspicion, e) may resume (or could have already resumed) military experiments, and f) even if years from the bomb would anyway proceed surreptitiously. Such were the contents of a tiny, declassified portion of a National Intelligence Estimate. Presenters were very confident in some places, but nowhere certain.
The first reaction of anybody's ought to be satisfaction that an Iranian program for nuclear weapons was taken for granted. But Tehran's hircine titular, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, can yet claim truth to Iranian denials — technically, to have said "We do not believe in nuclear weapons" at Columbia University this September would mean that they really don't, going on four years. And laws of political selection, when applied, simplified the report into an exoneration. Despite the meaning of the word "estimate" (a casual or considered judgment made without measuring or testing) or the feasibility of any determination of state secrets within a closed society (think North Korean, Syrian and Pakistani surprises), circumstances of the release have played out detrimentally to the right. Republican primary voters saw every major candidate act as he might under policy duress.
Mitt Romney, on Fox News with Greta van Susteren — one day after the release — interpreted "good news" from an apparent cessation. "What it suggests in the estimate is that the efforts on the part of the US and other nations to impose sanctions for their nuclear ambition has had an impact. And you certainly hope so because you want to make sure that our efforts are able to dissuade a nation from seeking nuclear weaponry."
Mike Huckabee, at roughly the same time as Romney, confessed innocence of the publication to reporter David Paul Kuhn. Questioned further, he was quoted as saying "I've a serious concern if they were to be able to weaponize nuclear material, and I think we all should, mainly because the statements of Ahmadinejad are certainly not conducive to a peaceful purpose for his having it and the fear that he would in fact weaponize it and use it." For all the derision at the Arkansas governor for having not read the report beforehand, Huckabee recognized the findings as tentative. "I don't know where the intelligence is coming from that says they have suspended the program or how credible that is versus the view that they actually are expanding it."
Fred Thompson, in a statement, concentrated on the report's wait-a-second-there qualities. "The NIE confirms that as recently as the fall of 2003, Iran was covertly working to develop nuclear weapons. Perhaps they have since halted their covert nuclear weapons work, but meanwhile they continue to aggressively pursue a uranium enrichment capability, despite the fact that it makes no economic sense as a civilian program."
John McCain, asked by Fox's Chris Wallace specifically about military action: "The military option is always the ultimate last option, but I don't believe that it's, quote, 'off the table.' I would remind you that enrichment is a longer process. Weaponization, which is the other half of the equation, can be done rather rapidly. Iran remains a nation dedicated to the extinction of the state of Israel. Iran continues to export the most lethal explosive devices into Iraq, killing Americans."
Rudy Giuliani, pressed as McCain was by MSNBC's Tim Russert, answered (conversational transcript elided), "[Y]ou always leave open the military option in a situation, you've got to interpret that as between high confidence, moderate confidence. I think a fair interpretation is that...right now the short-term issue is not nearly as grave, but they go on to say that the long-term issue is still there, that they can't with any high degree of confidence say that they're not going to move ultimately toward nuclear weapons."
A summary of the test? Romney would appear the most collected, as well as the one of the five most reliant on espionage and diplomatic prevention. Huckabee spoke in generalities, perhaps the least willing to contemplate an intransigent dictatorship. Giuliani didn't contradict his platform but was cautious, and then equivocal when Russert brought up the topical intensity of one of Giuliani's foreign policy advisors, Norman Podhoretz. Thompson was — Thompsonesque, synthesizing prevalent rightist convictions into a sedate, practical message. The frankest candidate — sure of Tehran's regional belligerence, mindful of the Khomeinists' furtive attacks on Americans, rejecting "face-to-face talks" outright — was the purveyor of "straight talk" himself, John McCain.