A combination of deductive reasoning, intelligence and dialogue through contacts seems to have explained away the mysterious disappearance of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il's portraits from public locations in and around Pyongyang. Prevailing wisdom holds that totalitarian Kim has simply altered his political persona on the heels of some more significant housecleaning:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il recently purged his brother-in-law from the government, removing a powerful party official who was thought to be a possible rival to Kim and his sons, South Korean intelligence officials have reported. North Korea watchers here had raised the name of 58-year-old Chang Sung Taek as someone the United States and South Korea might consider a more palatable leader than Kim.The purge is one of several measures Kim has taken this year to consolidate his hold over what is, in effect, a hereditary dynasty.
...The 63-year-old Kim Jong Il is believed to be grooming one of his two younger sons, 23-year-old Kim Jong Chul or 21-year-old Kim Jong Woon, as his successor.
Pessimists contend that if anything, Kim's latest moves suggest a consolidation of power — not a stumble or a flail. But at least one of North Korea's democratic neighbors is interested in seeing a perpetual security threat be neutralized:
Japanese sanctions on North Korea would have a severe impact on the reclusive communist regime, and could ultimately topple dictator Kim Jong Il if China joined in pressuring Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program, a key ruling party official said Sunday.Shinzo Abe said Kim could avoid being deposed by following the example of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, who a year ago said his country would dismantle its programs for weapons of mass destruction and allow U.N., American and British inspectors to visit the facilities.
"If he doesn't make that choice, then there could be regime change. He must realize this," Abe said on a TV Asahi debate program.
Pyongyang responded, naturally, in a tantrum, which may suggest that a nerve of North Korea's was struck — or nothing at all, since the invalid Stalinist regime is known for its vitriolic hyperbole. Still, Japan's majority Liberal Democratic Party is showing admirable grit where politicians in Seoul have simply capitulated. Furthermore, Tokyo is still moving towards a reconsideration of its pacifist constitution. The problem of North Korea's belligerence may not offer an easy solution but the Japanese are not for want of working towards it.
MAKE MORE OF A GOOD THING: Uncle Sam is encouraging Tokyo to apply its growing confidence to geopolitical concerns outside its regional sphere. Hint: mad mullahs who have everyone on their blacklist.
FROM THOSE WHO ARE THERE: A fellow living in Seoul links here and relays on his own weblog some telling opinions from South Koreans who have spent time in the inaptly named DPRK. And he offers news reports that deduct a bit of the certainty experts guarantee for a stable Kim regime. And, after a quick look at his personal photographs, I see that I went to grade school with his wife!
Small world, anyone? Yes, I'll take one; thank you.
ACT NATURALLY: Connection acknowledged. Langley will be pleased.