The Bank of Japan is cautiously predicting sustained economic growth, meaning in part that earlier signs of recovery have borne out.
But the same question remains: will Japan reform? Laissez-faire economic policies through decentralization and deregulation, more encouragement for small business, and a reformation of its farcical banking system?
While some observers of Japan saw a rejection of old values - conservatism, financial modesty, loyalty to the company store - between the 1960s and 1980s, others imply that the changes were superficial, and that the Japanese are as starched today as they always were:
There have been many attempts in recent years to dissect Japan's current circumstance. Most have been written from a global view. "Saving the Sun" takes a microview....The author, Gillian Tett, a social anthropologist turned journalist, was Tokyo Bureau Chief for the Financial Times of London during that critical period in the 1990s and early 2000s when the Long Term Credit Bank was on the ropes. She had incredible access to major players in the bank's demise and recovery. Her conclusion is that its problems were not unique to that institution but symptomatic of the institutional corruption and operational culture that retards Japan's ability to compete in the global setting.
The result is an intriguing account of the personalities involved in a clash of cultures. She explains how the Japanese reliance on consensus, stability and a stoic public face when confronted with extreme adversity led to ruin, and then to a nasty public clash of traditional Japanese culture vs American-driven, bottom-line standards of performance.
Maybe. Bureaucracy is a universal culture of the obstinate, and the only variance between nations seems to be the extent to which each one is tied down with red tape. Either way, Junichiro Koizumi will fight hard for a victory.