John Derbyshire of National Review is a clever man with a colorful past and a rare writer's wit. What he is not, however, is a reliable source for foreign policy pontification. I believe that commentary on the subject can be done with a little knowledge plus equal parts intuition and sociological sense - or else I wouldn't do it. Derbyshire, for whatever reason, seems to maintain a terrible record of predictions and observations; the biggest flop being his "impression" that Bush, after rolling over the Taliban in record time, would stiff on Baghdad. Derbyshire was good enough to carefully and intelligently retract when the other shoe was weeks away from dropping, but one wonders how he assembled such a miscalculation in the first place - other than being a Boomer whose life has been dominated by democracies seldom in any position to challenge the polity of dictatorships, which is no fault of his own. I'd become accustomed to certain political habits throughout most of my years, too. The Soviet, 800-pound gorilla is gone, however - Russia's ominous portent aside - and the free world has been given twelve years not only to remember which countries are self-governed and which are quietly stepping on their populations' collective faces, but to reassess its posture towards those stubborn despots.
Derbyshire certainly has an affinity for the Chinese, too. But why this odd observation:
I'll pass on Mexico, having left it too late in life to start learning Spanish. There is a city in China I have my eye on, though. A nice place, by the sea; quiet, clean, and civilized, big enough to offer some interesting dinner companions, yet not so big as to be full of foreigners on the make. Pleasant maritime climate, great fresh seafood.What's that? It's a Communist country? Oh, sure, the whole government system stinks. The place is awash with corruption, and if you tick off the wrong official, you could find yourself in court on an invented rap, looking at a ten-year jail term.
China is not totalitarian any more, though. You're not expected to memorize gibberish political formulas, not once you've got through with school anyway. You don't have to go to rallies and "political study" meetings any more. In the matter of everyday freedoms, it's probably close to the level of Mexico now. The thing about those places is, once you have mastered a few simple rules, the authorities pretty much leave you alone.
That's a mighty big caveat: don't manage your destiny with too much autonomy, and the Reds are hunky-dory. They won't even have you forced into mass rote or publicly humiliated for having the barber cut your coif like Mao. Beijing, on the up-and-up. On the face of it, Derbyshire ought to know better, however facetious he's being. Frankly, it's hard to tell. Derbyshire's not alone in the "co-opetitor" judgment of China.
Ironically, words like that could come at no better time for all of us to be reminded what threat to freedom China is determined to represent:
Raising the stakes in an already tense situation, China threatened in remarks published Wednesday that "the use of force may become unavoidable" if Taiwan pursues independence - the mainland's strongest statement in years against its archrival...."The people of Taiwan are standing at a very critical historical juncture, so let me give advice to all the people of Taiwan: Do not act just on impulse," [former Premier Zhu Rongji] said during a news conference [in 2000]. "Otherwise you will regret it very much and it will be too late to repent."
Last month, Beijing condemned Taiwan's leaders for their push for independence but stopped short of threatening war.
"The separatist activities by Taiwan independence elements directly endangers the basic interests of Taiwan compatriots, and it is a disaster for Taiwan," an unidentified spokesman from the Taiwan Affairs office was quoted as saying by Xinhua. "Activities like this cannot be tolerated by the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation."
China may try to look like us, but she isn't even close. There's a silver lining, however. Richard Armitage defended our democratic ally Taiwan:
"We have good competent forces there," Armitage said as he also offered assurances that the Bush administration would provide Taiwan with "sufficient defense articles for her self-defense."
Strongmen know only code of conduct: rule through strength, expansion through conquest (yes, Taiwan to China is pretty close as the Deutschsprechendevolk were to Nazi Germany). They can only be deterred through the threat of equal or greater force; dislodged by revolution or foreign deposition. And prevented from seizing power by robust representative government. We should not mistake losing sight of those facts of life with hope, especially when hope is reserved exactly for the ability to both resist dictatorship, remove it, and begin anew where it once was.